Because of this dynamic, the Daymark Energy Advisors analysis found that Revolution Wind’s power would still save consumers money even if the utilities pay twice as much as wholesale prices, Muller said.
Revolution Wind is also meant to supply power to ISO New England’s forward capacity market, which is designed to secure the resources the region needs to ensure its grid can keep running during times of peak demand in future years.
The project would make it less expensive for the region to meet those peaks, Silverman said, putting New England in abetter position than other areas of the country. Grid operator PJM Interconnection, which covers 13 states and D.C., has seen capacity prices skyrocket in the past year because it has not built new generation fast enough, henoted.
Perhaps even more valuable is that offshore wind can be abuffer against fuel shortages, Muller said. “In other words, we might have enough power plants, but they might not have enough fuel to get us through,” shesaid.
This summer, ISO New England unveiled the initial findings of an assessment on the grid’s ability to deliver energy during extreme weather events. That’s an incredibly complicated evaluation with alot of variables, ranging from the future of large-scale transmission lines that can deliver more power from outside the region to the capacity of the Everett Marine Terminal, amajor LNG import and storage facility near Boston.
But out of all those variables, the study’s base case assumes that ISO New England will have about 1.6gigawatts of offshore wind power in 2027, including 704megawatts from Revolution Wind. “If you take it out of the model, the risk will go up,” Muller said.
Fossil fuels can’t replace the power that would be lost if Revolution Wind isn’t brought online, Muller and Silverman said — even if the Trump administration is touting more gas pipelines as asolution.
Last month, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin published an op-ed in The Boston Globe claiming that aproposed pipeline originating in Pennsylvania would bring down energy costs in New England by enabling the region to access more gas from the line’s terminus in NewYork.
The piece came after the Trump administration lifted astop-work order on New York’s Empire Wind offshore wind project in May, claiming it had struck adeal with Gov. Kathy Hochul to allow two major gas pipelines to be built in the state. Hochul, aDemocrat, has denied any quid pro quo but has said the state will “work with the administration and private entities on new energy projects that meet the legal requirements under New Yorklaw.”
Energy experts have pointed out many flaws in the administration’s push for more pipelines, including alack of capacity to move gas from New York to New England and poor long-term economics for expanding that capacity. Every state in New England except New Hampshire has set clean energy and decarbonization mandates that call for using less fossil gas, not more, in the years tocome.
“We know that pipelines cost billions of dollars to build,” Muller said. But while Revolution Wind will generate energy throughout the year, “a pipeline would only change things for ahandful of days, afew weeks of the year. The rest of the time, it wouldn’t be needed. … There would be cheaper options.”
The Trump administration has insisted that fossil-fueled power plants must stay open to ensure grid reliability, going so far as to use emergency powers to force coal-, gas-, and oil-burning plants to keep running past their planned retirements. Those orders will force customers to bear tens of millions of dollars or more in unnecessary costs while doing nothing to improve reliability, according to energy analysts as well as the state attorneys general and environmental groups challenging the extensions incourt.
Fossil-fueled power plants also pose reliability challenges in cold weather. Gas plants made up the majority of generator failures during widespread winter blackouts in Texas in 2021, across the U.S. Southeast in 2022, and during the 2014 “polar vortex” in the U.S. Northeast.
The cold can cause malfunctions at gas plants themselves, or it can limit fuel supply by spurring breakdowns at the wellheads and compression stations that feed pipeline networks. ISO New England’s most recent winter outlook assumed that 3.9gigawatts to 4.8gigawatts of gas-fired power “may be at risk due to constrained natural gas pipelines.”
All of these factors were considered in the years-long decision-making processes that New England states went through to decide that offshore wind is their best choice, said Larry Chretien, executive director of the nonprofit Green Energy Consumers Alliance.
“We’re buying 30years of power at afixed price, and it’s agood price,” he said. “The states have decided they want to buy this stuff.” By blocking completion of Revolution Wind, the Trump administration is “forcing fossil fuels down our throats.”